From Sarajevo, epidemiologist, doctor of science, on the front line of defense against coronavirus: Sarajevo is Sarajevo.
I was born here, so it will remain. Did anything ugly happen to you at the beginning of the war when you had to leave the city? No, don’t ask this kind of question. I don’t want to talk about private life.
But you talked about it in Belgrade! We’re talking about a virus: The virus won’t last forever, we’re trying to outsmart the virus and increase our collective immunity, it’s just a matter of what moment it will happen. We don’t know exactly when the pandemic will end, but we’re near.
Hopefully the weather with high temperatures will help with that. Not a good chance, but the option is not ruled out. The virus will reappear in the fall if it can survive high temperatures. During this month we will have significant numbers of patients. We have 145 people on a respirator, they are in serious condition and their lives are in danger. From next month we will have a continuous decline in the number of patients. As we grow stronger, so does the virus weaken.
Only in our organism can this virus remain and multiply and as such pass on to another sensitive person. If a virus enters the body of a person who has immunity, it is the most unfavorable environment for him and as soon as he finds it, he gradually weakens, when he passes to another person who has immunity, even more weak and then he can no longer survive. From 60 to 80% of the population must be immune so that the virus does not spread further. If the virus returns, we will never do it again. We are no longer a new virus, we are getting used to it.
We will have an adequate degree of collective immunity by the fall. We’ll get used to it like the flu, except we have the flu vaccine, and it still doesn’t look good with the Corona. We don’t know how it was 100 years ago, who knows if it’s the worst. We forgot what infectious diseases are. Now it seems to us that we do not have them. People did not take the basic preventative measure of handwashing and social distance seriously.
It is no longer just a matter of epidemiology. In much more developed countries with developed health systems, collapses have taken place, this can happen to anyone. I think what we do is effective. It can happen that a moment of inattention can lead to a dizzying leap again. We are increasingly certain that this type of scenario will not happen.
The person behind the infection has created the defense antibodies, and in their blood has antibodies to this virus, they are taken with the blood plasma with these antibodies, and with this serum there is a possibility of preventive action, and another option is to give the persons already infected. It can be used in persons known to have been exposed to and in contact with infected persons. Experts do not have time to devote to research, initial results have shown that the population without BCG vaccine is more likely to die.
This vaccine is even used to treat bladder cancer.
The epidemic is not a large number in a short period of time, but an unusually large number in a short period of time. We report an epidemic when the number of patients is greater than 1000 in the short term. This virus spread rapidly, when it just came up in China we thought it was not transmitted from human to human, and then we saw that it was not so difficult and then its rapid contagion; that one person can transmit to more than one person, so we compared the virus to the flu, but it’s not.
If it comes back to us from season to season, we will know what is common to us for this virus. If we get used to living with it and for this virus we will have a number of categories that are normal to occur. We also had a pandemic in 2009, the same scenario when a new virus occurs.
Face.ba / Balkantimes.press
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