As Scottish Independence Calls Grow, U.K. Trumpets Virtues of Unity

With polls showing Scottish support for leaving the U.K. is growing, the government has “to increase the amount of noise we make about the financial support and the benefits of being part of the United Kingdom,” said Alister Jack, the U.K. government’s secretary of state for Scotland, who recently toured the building.

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Scotland held a referendum on leaving the U.K. in 2014, with Scots rejecting independence by a comfortable margin. But the British government’s flat-footed response to the Covid-19 pandemic and Brexit—which Scotland overwhelmingly voted against in 2016—has fueled a resurgence in popularity for ending Scotland’s 313-year union with England. For the first time in the modern era, support for independence is consistently polling above 50%.

The Johnson government has decided to go on the offensive.

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“We have been up against a relentless campaign” by Scottish independence supporters, said David Mundell, a U.K. lawmaker and former secretary of state for Scotland. “We just didn’t do enough to continue to demonstrate the benefits of being in the United Kingdom.”

Outside the new government building, some Edinburgh residents are unimpressed. “We don’t need another outpost of the British government here,” said James MacDonald Reid, 72 years old, unfurling a blue-and-white Scottish flag outside the building with two of his friends. “We need our independence to make our own decisions and manage our country as we see fit.”

Scottish elections next year are expected to provide a fresh platform for the pro-independence Scottish National Party to call for a second referendum. The SNP is expected to secure a big majority in Scotland’s Parliament and aims to use that mandate to push the U.K. government to grant a fresh vote on the issue.

Mr. Johnson has ruled out a second independence referendum. Instead,

“If you offer something to people which they wish to have in democracy and they are forbidden to have it by people who weren’t elected by them, you have a democratic crisis,” said Michael Russell, a Scottish National Party lawmaker and Scotland’s minister for constitutional relations.

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To smooth tensions, British government ministers have been touring Scotland. This summer Mr. Johnson, who has poor approval ratings north of the border, vacationed in a tent on the Scottish coast. His treasury secretary paid a visit to talk up the extra £6.5 billion of funds the U.K. government handed the Scottish Parliament to manage the coronavirus pandemic.

Plans are being drawn up to brand infrastructure projects in Scotland with Union Jack flags, to remind locals where the money came from. Other sweeteners are in the pipeline: The U.K. government designated the high-profile COP26 climate-change conference to be in Glasgow next year. Mr. Jack also hopes more cash will soon flow into Scottish government coffers.

In the past, the British government has responded to calls for independence by granting Scotland more say over its domestic affairs. Since the 1990s, issues such as education and health were devolved to a new Scottish Parliament to manage. Following the 2014 referendum, the government offered yet more powers to Scotland. Meanwhile, fiscal incentives support Scotland’s membership in the union. The U.K. government spends an average of £13,854 per person in Scotland, £1,661 more than across the rest of the U.K., according to Scotland’s government.

Ultimately, Scotland must defer to the government in London, since the U.K. Parliament there is sovereign above that in Scotland.

Currently, 48 of the 59 lawmakers who represent Scottish districts in the House of Commons are held by SNP lawmakers. But in a Parliament with 650 lawmakers, that gives them little sway over the country’s laws.

The British government is now taking a more muscular stance with Scotland. Losing Scotland would dent Britain’s economic and political clout and likely spell the end of Mr. Johnson’s term in office, analysts say. London has no desire to cede more powers to its Parliament or adopt a federal model of government, Mr. Jack said. “There is a lot of money in the pot, there are a lot of powers they can use,” he said. “They should focus on the day he is hammering home the economic advantages to Scotland of being part of the union.

Scotland last year recorded a £15 billion ($20 billion) deficit, equivalent to 8.6% of the country’s economy. Unionists argue that if Scotland became independent it would either have to raise taxes or cut spending. “We just have to hold our nerve,” said Mr. Jack.

Independence advocates say that the country could better manage its economy outside the U.K. and that the British government’s stance on denying another referendum is unsustainable.

The 2014 referendum, billed as a once-in-a-generation vote, seemed at the time to put the issue to bed. Some 55% of Scots voted to stay in the U.K.

But then in 2016, as the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, 62% of Scots voted to stay. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said that Britain’s exit from the EU illustrated how London’s Parliament ignored the wishes of the Scottish people. She demanded another independence referendum.

Covid-19 has both helped and hindered the SNP cause. Work toward calling a referendum this year was shelved in March because of the pandemic while the subsidies funneled north to reinforce the economic benefits of the union.

England suffered the highest increase in death rate during the peak of the pandemic compared with other European countries, according to the Office for National Statistics. Scotland had the third-highest. Ms. Sturgeon gained plaudits from Scotland’s relative performance versus England.

Some Scots are warming to the idea of independence. Malcolm Elder, 41, said he voted against breaking from the U.K. in the 2014 referendum. “It felt like the cost of doing it was too high,” he said at his sandwich shop, Gannet & Guga, in the center of Edinburgh. “But now I’m beginning to think the cost of staying with Boris Johnson in charge outweighs that if he ever allows a vote. We might be better going our own way.”

New tensions are emerging as Britain reclaims control of rules that used to fall to the EU. A fight is brewing over whether the British government should decide questions over state subsidies and building regulations for the entire U.K., or whether these matters should be devolved to each legislature.

If the SNP performs well in elections next year and Mr. Johnson continues to resist calls for a referendum, proceedings may move to court. Matters of the union are reserved for London’s Parliament. But the SNP may challenge whether the Scottish Parliament should have the right to trigger a referendum. SNP officials stress they don’t want to copy the separatist movement in the Spanish region of Catalonia and hold a referendum that is illegal.

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A new independent state would eventually need its own currency and central bank. Independence supporters say the country would rejoin the EU. But that raises a host of other questions including the likelihood that border checks would have to be established between Scotland and the rest of the U.K.

Independence campaigners can exploit the forces that helped make Brexit a reality, said Ben Jackson, professor of modern history at the University of Oxford. “The central argument is similar to the Brexit argument in that it is about asserting democratic sovereignty,” he said.

WSJ / Balkantimes.press