INDIA
Discontent surrounding the passage of the controversial 2019 Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) intensified across India in 2020.
The CAA, which came into effect on 10 January 2020 (Gazette of India, 10 January 2020), grants citizenship rights to undocumented non-Muslim immigrants from three neighboring Muslim majority countries – Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
The law denies Muslim migrants the same citizenship rights, which has led to criticism that it discriminates against Muslims (Al-Jazeera, 16 December 2019). In India’s culturally diverse northeastern states, opposition to the CAA revolves around concerns over the Act’s implications for demographic changes in the region.
Tribal groups in the northeast fear the CAA will localize a large population of non-tribal residents, particularly Hindus from neighboring Bangladesh. In addition to skewing the demographics of the region, tribal groups have concerns about burdening resources, as well as threats to indigenous languages and cultures (Economic Times, 17 December 2019).
Women’s groups also oppose the law as Indian women are less likely to have access to the documentation required to prove their citizenship (Foreign Policy, 4 February 2020). ACLED has recorded the participation of women’s groups in over ten percent of CAA-related demonstrations in 2020.
The surge in anti-CAA demonstrations during the final quarter of 2019 continued into 2020, culminating into widespread violence and religious clashes. During the first seven months of 2020, ACLED has recorded over 1,500 disorder events related to the CAA, including nearly 60 reported fatalities.
Violence has been reported between supporters and opponents of the Act, and between demonstrators and police. Some communist leaders accused the police of acting as an extension of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (Outlook, 14 February 2020).
Attacks on anti-CAA demonstrators were also perpetrated by right-wing, Hindu nationalist groups including BJP, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), and Bajrang Dal, as well as individual perpetrators shooting at demonstrators. Amid the surge in unrest, some BJP leaders were accused of inciting violence against anti-CAA demonstrators while campaigning for Delhi’s Legislative Assembly election (National Herald, 9 February, 2020; BBC, 29 January 2020).
The pro-CAA and anti-Muslim rhetoric used by BJP leaders for electoral campaigning has entrenched the Hindu-Muslim divide, leading to deadly religious riots between Hindu and Muslim communities in Delhi. The riots reportedly led to over 50 fatalities, with Muslims accounting for two-thirds of those (New York Times, 3 March 2020).
The neutrality of Delhi’s police force, which reports directly to the BJP-led union government, was also questioned during the riots (BBC, 25 February 2020).
Police personnel reportedly stood by while Hindu mobs attacked Muslim civilians and destroyed their property and places of worship (New York Times, 27 February 2020). CAA-related violence and demonstrations subsided in April, following the imposition of a strict nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Since the enforcement of the lockdown, a small number of CAA-related demonstrations have been reported. ACLED records an increase in these demonstrations in northeast India during the month of July, suggesting that widespread anti-CAA demonstrations could resurface with the potential for more violence.
Despite the onset of the pandemic, religious violence has continued due to the weaponization of the coronavirus against India’s Muslims. A spike in violence against Muslims was recorded after Indian authorities linked several coronavirus cases to a conference organized in Delhi by Tablighi Jamaat, an Islamic missionary group.
Fake news campaigns on social media against Muslims spawned more attacks (Wire, 16 May 2020; Time, 3 April 2020), while BJP leaders were accused of perpetuating the anti-Muslim narrative (Al Jazeera, 29 April 2020).
In West Bengal state, police filed cases against two BJP MPs accused of inciting violence during coronavirus-related clashes between Hindus and Muslims, which lasted several days (Indian Express, 18 May 2020).
With the coronavirus pandemic in the backdrop, the Indian government took measures to introduce a new law for the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). The region’s limited autonomy was initially revoked in August 2019 following the controversial abrogation of articles 370 and 35 A of the Indian constitution.
The new law, announced almost eight months after the revocation of the former state’s autonomy, allows a path for Indian citizens from other areas to settle permanently in the region, including the children of central government officials. Similar to the CAA in the northeast, the new law in J&K is considered a threat to the demographics of a region that was previously India’s only Muslim-majority state (Al-Jazeera, 3 April 2020).
Opponents of the law also criticized the timing of its introduction, claiming that it was announced during a nationwide lockdown to avoid public outrage (Hindustan Times, 4 April 2020). Increasing discontent and religious divides, fueled by recent events, may contribute towards greater support for militancy in the region.
An increase in events and fatalities involving Indian security forces and militant groups was reported in J&K following the imposition of the nationwide coronavirus lockdown. Reports suggest that Indian forces have used the lockdown to commit resources towards stamping out militancy in the region (New India Express, 7 May 2020).
ACLED records 30 violent events and nearly 50 fatalities involving security forces and militants during the first quarter of 2020. Following the imposition of the lockdown, over 80 events and 140 fatalities were recorded during the second quarter of the year.
Despite significant gains against militancy in the region, militant groups like the newly formed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) off-shoot, Resistance Front (RF), continue to seek greater influence in the region (Outlook, 26 April 2020).
Islamic State (IS) affiliates have increased their activity in the region during the lockdown and have been involved in several clashes with security forces. IS is reportedly focused on recruiting Indian Muslims in the aftermath of the CAA riots (Diplomat, 30 March 2020).
Recently, LeT militants targeted and issued threats against BJP leaders in the region in retaliation for alleged Indian Army activity against civilians and families of militants in J&K (Asian News Hub, 15 July 2020).
Some BJP activists have resigned following the attacks (Hindu, 15 July 2020). With militant groups vying for greater influence, and Indian security forces focusing on tackling militancy, a surge in violence between militants and security forces can be expected in J&K going forward.
Internationally, escalated cross-border violence with Pakistan and recent clashes with Chinese forces have raised the risk of serious international confrontation. Indian forces in Kashmir may have to contend with the threat of a Pakistan-China alliance, as well as domestic militancy and growing dissent amongst the local population.
This year, a significant increase in cross-border violence between Indian and Pakistani forces was reported across the Line of Control (LoC) in the Kashmir region. ACLED records 480 clashes and 130 fatalities between Indian and Pakistani forces during the first seven months of the year, compared to 260 clashes and 69 fatalities over the same period in 2019.
The sharp increase in cross-border violence puts 2020 on pace to become the most violent year recorded between India and Pakistan since the beginning of ACLED coverage in 2016. Meanwhile, recent tension between Indian and Chinese forces is centered around infrastructure development projects initiated by India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) (Washington Post, 2 June 2020).
In response, China deployed troops and initiated its own infrastructure projects in the region, including the construction of military installations in Indian territory (BBC, 16 June 2020; BBC, 25 June 2020).
Clashes were reported along the LAC in May and June, with the most recent one resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and at least one Chinese soldier. As of July, both sides have taken measures to de-escalate hostilities along the LAC (New York Times, 6 July 2020).
Despite this, India now faces the possibility of active cross-border conflict with both Pakistan and China: regional allies with a long history of economic and military cooperation (South Asian Voices, 25 May 2020).
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